Clase de Plata Mid-Week | Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Oil Drops, Midterms Done, Stocks Jump
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Clase de Plata Mid-Week | Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Mon–Wed recap
Monday: Oil crashed. The oil fund USO fell 7.07% on hopes for peace talks with Iran. Tech sold off too. SPY (a fund that tracks the S&P 500) closed at 752.15, down 0.47%. Factories did well: the ISM factory survey hit 55.5, and people expected 54.5. Over 50 means growing.
Tuesday: Job openings jumped to 7.52 million. People expected about 7.1 million. Traders now see about a 75% chance the Fed raises rates in December. A hot job market can mean higher rates for longer. SPY still rose 0.31% to 754.44, and chip stocks bounced 2.01%.
Wednesday so far: Democrats won the House and Senate, and stocks jumped around the world. Traders think a split Washington means fewer big changes. At 8:44 AM PT, SPY was 767.01, up 1.68%. Gold was up 3.55% and the oil fund USO was down 7.12%. Private companies added 86,000 jobs in October. People expected 75,000.
What's ahead Wed–Fri
Wed (today): Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin report after the close. AMD reported last night, but its result isn't in our notes yet (TBD).
Thu: TBD. Nothing is logged yet.
Fri: The October jobs report comes out at 5:30 AM PT. People expect about 55,000 to 65,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment.
The SPY level I'm watching: if it holds 755.72, the next stop is 771. If it falls under 750.36, the bounce is off.
Scanner pick: INGR (Ingredion)
This is a long-term idea. It's our newest pick, from Nov 1 (3 days old).
Price: $96.97 (Oct 30 close), down 12.1% this year
P/E 10.5: you pay about $10.50 for each $1 of yearly profit, which is cheap
Pays a 3.5% dividend (cash paid to owners)
Fair-value guess (the Graham number): $121.85
Why: it passes 5 of 7 classic value checks, and money has been flowing into everyday-goods (staples) stocks over the last month
Staples fell 2.06% on Tuesday, so this is a slow, long-term idea, not a quick trade.
Riskier pick: EXE (Expand Energy)
Expand is one of the biggest natural gas producers in the U.S. It looks cheap: P/E 7.9, and the stock was $90.44 on Oct 29, which is 39.0% below its Graham number of $148.34 (a rough fair-value price). The world wants U.S. gas for power and exports.
The main risk: gas prices can fall fast, and the stock follows. It also has more short-term bills than short-term cash and assets (current ratio 0.90, and Graham likes 2.0 or more).
Hedge idea: keep it small, a starter slice and not a big bet. Add only if it holds above recent lows. You could also pair it with a broad energy fund so one gas bet doesn't run the show.
Big days ahead. Stick to your plan. No chasing.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Clase de Plata is not a registered investment advisor. Do your own research.
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